Power Of Sensex

Hi

Just wanted to share a very positive statistic on the BSE.

As at January 8 2009, the Sensex had closed at 9071, a far below from 20873 on January 8, 2008.

Now, even if it took 5 years (Jan 2014) for Sensex to reach its previous high, the return would be 18.14% (CAGR).

If it took 7 years (Jan 2016), it would be 12.64%.
And even if the sensex reached that figure in Jan 2019 (10 years), the returns would be 8.69%.

"So invest in Share Market than any other investment"

Stocks are likely to face a severe de-rating on the stock markets - CLSA

After the Satyam debacle we would like to inform the members of
to look into the report of CLSA which mentions top 15 stocks
which may face severe de-rating . We would advice members
not press the panic button and sell stocks in losses , it would be
better idea to stay away from markets for few days. we will be
updating you all on the latest developments.

1. Anantraj Industries:

A North Indian commercial developer, transferred part of one of its
projects (0.52mn sf out of 0.75mn sf in a mall in Delhi) to its wholly
owned subsidiary and consequently showed equivalent revenues in its
standalone results (93% of 1QFY09 revenues).

As against standalone revenues of Rs1.72bn and net profit of Rs1.52bn,
consolidated revenues are Rs104.8m and net profit of Rs77.6m. Out of
the consolidated revenue of Rs104.8m, Rs68.05m (65%) is from the
ceramics business.

2. DLF:

DLFs non-DAL revenues declined 44% QoQ to Rs22.5bn and around 40% of
sales have been to DAL, a group entity. 44% of debtors are DAL and of
total debtors, the share of DAL has increased during the quarter with
DAL receivables increasing by Rs14.5bn QoQ.

During 1QFY09, sales to DAL were Rs15.6bn, which is marginally higher
than the increase in receivables from DAL. We would like to add that
DLFs high level of transactions with group company DAL and high level
of receivables has been a point of debate since it went public.

3. Dr Reddys Labs:

Dr. Reddy's has adjusted mark to market losses on outstanding US$250m
of hedges in balance sheet, while P&L reflects forex gains realised.
The company also reclassified its contract manufacturing business
(CPS) revenues into API and Formulations, which makes it difficult to
analyse its segmental performance.

4. Himatsingka Siede:

Himatsingka in one derivative contract had mark to market losses of US
$41.5m as on March 24, 2008 and no provision has been made since the
company has filed a case in court against the concerned bank. In case
of another derivative contract, mark to market loss of Rs1.58bn as on
30th June has not been provided for since the derivative contract is
still open.

5. HCL Tech:

HCL Tech has normally had a very large hedge position compared to its
revenue base. While the rupee was appreciating, the company reaped
benefits of this and reported US$79.2m in Forex gains in FY07. The
company has always maintained that it would prefer to lock-in a
constant INR/US$ rate through hedging rather than suffer from the
currency volatility.

However, the company unwound US$540m of hedges in Jun-08 and booked
large Forex losses. We find this change in Forex policy surprising and
the company has likely brought forward its potential FY09 FX losses to
4QFY08 through this change in policy.

6. JP Associates:

Jaiprakash Associates did not provide for FX losses on outstanding
FCCBs of US$400m through its P&L and plans to provide for the FX
losses/ gains at the end of the year.

7. Jet Airways:

Jet Airways changed its depreciation policy from WDV to SLM, and
thereby wrote back Rs9.2bn into its P&L, which helped the company to
report profits during the quarter. It also helped Jet to report higher
net worth, which will help in keeping reported gearing low. This is a
one-time exercise. Jet also capitalised Forex loss of Rs6.2bn on Forex
debt and adjusted it against carrying value of fixed assets.

8. Prajay Engineers Syndicate:

Hyderabad based developer, reported a loss in its fourth quarter
results against expectations of a profit. The company "lost" records
for a project worth 40% of its annual revenues at the site office.

The company in its press release said - "After the year end, basic
records relating to sale agreements / revenue and construction
expenses of one of the Projects of property development were lost at
the site office, Vishakhapatnam. The auditors in their report have
stated that they were not able to verify the books and records
relating to income of Rs1437.71m and relevant construction cost of
Rs752.654m. Management is making all efforts to locate/ retrieve the
lost records."

9. Ranbaxy:

Pharma major has mark to market losses of Rs9.09bn on forex derivative
contracts, which have not been provided for because the company
believes "the gain on fair valuation of underlying transactions
against which the derivative transactions were undertaken amount to
Rs10.3bn." This argument is against the principles of conservative
accounting wherein mark to market losses are being offset against
assumed future profits.

10. Reliance Communications:

Telecom Company has adjusted short term quarterly fluctuations in
foreign exchange rates related to liabilities and borrowings to the
carrying cost of fixed assets. The company adjusted Rs1.09bn of
realized and Rs9.55bn of unrealized Forex losses in the above manner.

In addition, the company has not recognised Rs3.99bn of translation
losses on FCCBs, since the FCCBs can potentially get converted,
although the FCCBs are out of money. Adjusted for all the above, the
company would have virtually no profits in 1QFY09.

11. Reliance Industries:

In continuance of its policy, adjusted "foreign currency exchange
differences on amounts borrowed for acquisition of fixed assets, to
the carrying cost of fixed assets…which is at variance to the
treatment prescribed in AS11." Had AS11 been followed, profits for
1QFY09 would have been lower by Rs9.4bn (23% of reported net
profits).

12. Sobha Developers:

South Indian developer changed its accounting norms in 1QFY09 for
revenue recognition which facilitates revenue being recognized earlier
in a project cycle. According to its press release, if the accounting
policy had not been changed, the company's 1QFY09 PBT would have been
lower by 20%.

Excerpts from the company's press release: "With effect from April 01,
2008 the Company has changed its accounting policy for revenue
recognition for sale of undivided share of land (group housing) on the
basis of certain minimum level of collection of dues from the customer
and / or agreement for sale being executed rather than criteria
relating to the project reaching a significant level of completion to
align it with revenue recognition policy for sale of villa plots.

This has been resulted in additional revenue recognition and higher
profit before taxes of Rs321m and Rs150m respectively during the
quarter ended June 30, 2008."

13. Tata Motors:

Company has transferred 24% stake in Tata Automotive Components
(TACO), a company with revenue of US$675 in FY07, to Tata Capital, a
group company, and booked profit of Rs1.1bn in 1QFY09. Management has
declined to disclose the valuation methodology.

Senior management of Tata Motors, in a conference call with analysts,
said, "I would not be able to share with you the specific valuation
methodology, except to say that the things are done by an independent
reputed firm and based on the company's track record and the future
business opportunity."

Tata Motors has also changed its methodology for calculating
provisions for doubtful receivables, which resulted in higher reported
EBITDA to the extent of Rs507m (10% of EBITDA).

14. TCS:

The software major increased its depreciation policy on computers from
2 years to 4 years. As a result, 1QFY09 PBT was higher by an estimated
Rs500m (c.4% of net profit in 1QFY09). TCS follows cash-flow hedge
accounting and till FY08, it used to recognise hedging gains on
effective hedges in its revenue line, thus boosting the reported
revenue growth and EBIT margin.

In FY08, TCS had Rs4.21bn from hedging gains, of which, Rs1.37bn was
included in the revenue line. However, from 1QFY09, TCS will report
all Forex losses/gains below the EBIT line in other income. Thus the
losses it had on its hedge position will no longer be booked in the
operating line.

15. Zee Entertainment:

Media company withdrew its buyback offer "for the time being" without
assigning any other reason. This happened after SEBI made it mandatory
that companies will have to complete the entire buy back within the
stipulated time, if the stock is trading below the maximum buy back
price at the end of the buyback period and the buyback amount has not
been completed.

Safe Harbour Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates,
expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension
of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ
materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in
government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within
India and the countries within which the Company conducts its
business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of
competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply
constraints.

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment
advice.

Calls For 07-01-2009

Sell ICICI Bank at opening SL 507 Tgt 483-477

Sell Nitin Fire at opening SL 219 Tgt 206-198

Financially, the worst is over

Article Published In ET on 05-01-2009

In 2008, financial markets around the world were a casualty of Murphy's Law - anything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Indeed, many things went terribly wrong.

Yet 2009 holds promise for emerging countries, including India, say financial market pundits.

Investor money will once again start flowing into India, says Jeff Chowdhry, head of emerging equities at the London-based F&C Investments. He believes while foreign large institutional investors are slightly biased towards China right now, the flip side is that, compared to India, the Chinese economy is more dependent on exports and the health of the US economy.

“The year 2009 will be one of volatility with two competing forces at play — global recession on the one hand, and the cash piles with fund managers, on the other. With central banks across the globe pumping in money, lot of it will find its way into the emerging markets. We will have short term money coming in by end-2009, whereby we could see markets end 30-40% higher from its current levels," Chowdhry said.

In 2008, foreign institutional investors pulled out $11 bn from the Indian equity market. So it may not be easy to reverse the flow in 2009. Portfolio investors say any recovery in India will have to be preceded by an overall improvement in market sentiment globally.

Yet the worst seems to be over, says the head of global financial services firm Morgan Stanley’s India arm Narayan Ramachandran. He believes the liquidity-boosting measures taken by central banks around the world would take effect by the second half of 2009. “There may be some small amount of pessimism left, which could play out in the next earnings season. However, the deluge of bad news and fear is behind us,” he added.

The recovery won’t start from equity markets however, as they are typically a dipstick for the overall mood in an economy. Other financial markets may need to recover before share prices start climbing. The credit market, for instance, may be among the first to start looking up, says Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, managing director and head of research at brokerage DSP Merrill Lynch. “This is the signal that the equity market will respond to, for it is a clear sign of increasing risk tolerance. Thereafter, one could see a reciprocal effect on equity and commodity markets,” he said.

“One factor in India’s favour is that it still has one of the best growth rates in the world. However, between Brazil, Russia, India and China, China is clearly preferred over India, given that China’s YTD (year-to-date) performance is worse than India,” he added.

Jaipuria believes there are two factors driving investor preference for China over India. First, India runs a large fiscal deficit and current account deficit unlike China, making pump-priming difficult. Secondly, the political fallout of elections here may make swift government action difficult.

Meanwhile, what should you do with your money in 2009? Morgan Stanley’s Ramachandran says a large share of the extra cash will find its way into gold and the credit markets. “Pockets of emerging markets” would benefit, he says. F&C is advising its clients to put money to work and expect returns only over two to three years.

Jaipuria recommends buying on bad news. He is optimistic about the prospects of telecom and drug companies, along with state-run banks. But for the long term, he is betting on automobile companies.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3935296.cms

Risk And Return

When the investor want to invest his money at a higher rate of return there is a higher factor of risk. As we would be exposing our money to the markets (equity, debt, etc.) and their associated risks. Further, the higher the risk taken, the higher is the expected return. In the bank the money is exposed to no risk, so the return is just at about the inflation rate. In contrast the risk in equity markets is the highest, and the expected returns would also be the highest. Before exposing ourselves to the markets, we can apply common sense and our learning to reduce this risk to acceptable levels.

There are 5 economic factors that affect equity returns, which can be classified under the 4 types of investment risk.